June 2026 Nasdaq-100 Rebalance: Prediction & Trade Plan
A market-cap simulation of the June 2026 Nasdaq-100 quarterly rebalance — who is removed, who is added — and the strategy to trade it: long the deletions, entering the session after the announcement and exiting roughly two weeks past the effective date.
Prediction
Effective before the open on Mon Jun 22, 2026 (the third Friday, Jun 19, is Juneteenth — a market holiday — so the first trading day after it is Jun 22). The change is announced after the close on Thu Jun 11, the sixth trading day before effective. Nine deletions and nine additions keep the index at 100 companies. Ranks are reconstructed Full-Market-Cap ranks as of the May-29 reference date.
| Ticker | Company | Rank | Mkt cap | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHTR | Charter Communications | 181 | $18.4B | High |
| ZS | Zscaler | 155 | $22.6B | High |
| INSM | Insmed | 152 | $23.2B | High |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics | 149 | $23.8B | High |
| CTSH | Cognizant | 143 | $26.4B | High |
| GEHC | GE HealthCare | 133 | $28.6B | High |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz | 128 | $30.3B | Watch |
| CPRT | Copart | 127 | $30.3B | Watch |
| DXCM | DexCom | 126 | $30.4B | Watch |
| Ticker | Company | Rank | Mkt cap | Seasoned |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | Rocket Lab | 51 | $95.8B | ✓ |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 73 | $59.0B | ✓ |
| ALAB | Astera Labs | 74 | $58.7B | ✓ |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | 75 | $58.7B | ✓ |
| TER | Teradyne | 76 | $58.6B | ✓ |
| FLEX | Flex | 78 | $56.0B | ✓ |
| EBAY | eBay | 89 | $48.1B | ✓ |
| MDLN | Medline | 90 | $48.0B | ✓ |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | 91 | $47.3B | ✓ |
Method
Starting from the Nasdaq-listed universe and the Nasdaq-100 constituent snapshot on June 10, 2026, the simulation removes current members ranked outside the top 125 eligible companies, then refills to 100 with the largest eligible non-members.
- ADR adjustment Non-primary ADRs (foreign primary listing) are excluded from the addition pool: Nasdaq counts only their listed depositary-share market cap, which the public screener overstates. This removes SNY, NTES, ARGX and similar from the additions.
- Seasoning screen A June replacement must be listed by end of February 2026 (three full calendar months), and none of these candidates rank top-40, so Fast Entry’s seasoning waiver applies to none. CBRS (Cerebras) is excluded — it listed 2026-05-14, unseasoned — and ON Semiconductor backfills the seat.
- Conviction tiering The six deletions ranked 133–181 are clear of the 125 cutoff. The three ranked 126–128 sit inside the noise of the reconstruction and are flagged “watch,” not core.
The trade
Direction is long on both sides — shorting earns roughly 0% on deletions and about −10% on additions. The robust edge is the deletions: index funds dump the removed names into the effective date, and they rebound over the following sessions. Figures below are from a timing backtest of past Nasdaq-100 component changes, gross of costs.
- Deletions — long, enter Fri Jun 12 at the open BUY The first session after the Thursday-night announcement, so you trade only confirmed removals. Mean +9.9% per event, median +5.6%, win 79%, ~25-day hold. Trade the six High-conviction names; half-size or skip the three watch names.
- Additions — speculative, window mostly past LATE The best entry was two sessions before the announcement (Tue Jun 9), now past. Median is only +2–3% and win ~56% even at best — a small, skew-driven sleeve. Size small or skip.
- Both — exit Mon Jul 6 at the close Nine trading sessions after the effective date. Exit at the close, not the open: on the addition exit day the stock drifts up through the session (open→close ~+3%). The exit is a region, roughly Jul 2 to Jul 8.
Calendar
Snapshot date Wed Jun 10, 2026. Times in ET.
Risks & caveats
What would make the numbers above overstate the live edge.
A rules-based prediction, not an official Nasdaq announcement and not investment advice. Nasdaq uses official Full Market Capitalization, ICB classifications, ADVT, seasoning, share-class and corporate-action checks that can differ from public screener fields. The edges are gross of costs and come from an in-sample backtest of only 8 deletion / 9 addition historical events — trust the pattern, not the decimals. The in/out lists are a reconstruction with a few ranks of noise at the 125 boundary, which is why the #126–128 names are “watch.” Additions are predictions the Jun-11 announcement may not confirm.
Sources: Nasdaq public screener data, Nasdaq-100 constituent data, Nasdaq-100 Index Methodology, and an hourly-bar timing backtest of past Nasdaq-100 component changes, reviewed June 10, 2026. Publication proof: OpenTimestamps verification file and instructions.